The International Positions Summarized
Where are we now?
The political and economic changes of the last 15 years have brought into question some of the basic principles on which the Kyoto Protocol is based. The challenge faced by negotiators at Copenhagen can be summed up by contrasting the position between the United States and China. The United States is the largest emitter of GHG on a per capita basis while China has the highest overall emissions. Negotiators need to achieve an outcome that will curb greenhouse gas emissions while allowing developing nations to grow their economies without damaging the economies of the developed nations. This challenge has caused a roadblock in negotiations between the parties in the run-up to Copenhagen.
Where do the negotiating parties stand at present?
Prior to the Copenhagen meeting, the negotiating parties have met at intervals throughout the year to try to reach broad agreement on some of the more difficult issues that will need to be resolved before an agreement is reached. Most recently, the parties met in Barcelona from November 2-6 . Currently there is a widely held view that the parties will not be able to reach a legally binding agreement at Copenhagen. Their current positions can be summarized as follows:
The United States
U.S. President Barack Obama has said he will propose a U.S. emissions reduction target roughly 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 during negotiations on December 9. The Obama Administration signaled its support for an international framework to address climate change, but indicated the U.S.’s commitment will be made “in the context of an overall deal in Copenhagen that includes robust mitigation contributions from China and the other emerging economies.” Notably, the commitment is also contingent on its being “in line with final U.S. energy and climate legislation.”
Although Obama’s reduction target is in line with targets set in the “American Clean Energy and Security Act” passed by the U.S. House of Representatives in June 2009, climate legislation seems to be on hold in the Senate at least until next year. In the face of a debate on health-care legislation, an economy in recession, and impending mid term elections, it remains to be seen whether and when the Senate will pass a climate bill – and whether it will be consistent with Obama’s announcement in Copenhagen. Still, the Obama Administration has taken several steps toward regulating GHG in the U.S., including increasing fuel efficiency and decreasing emissions from motor vehicles, and requiring large emission sources to submit annual GHG emissions inventories.
China
China will be proposing cuts in ‘emissions intensity’ against business as usual of 40-45% by 2020 compared to 2005 levels. ‘Emissions intensity’ is the emissions produced per unit of economic output.
The European Union
EU leaders have agreed to enter the Copenhagen talks arguing that poorer nations will need 100 billion Euros a year by 2020 to tackle global warming, but as yet they have not set a level for Europe's contribution.
In terms of Europe’s own emissions reduction target, the current figure is a 20% reduction from 1990 levels by 2020 and 30% if agreement is reached in Copenhagen. However, the EU is currently discussing a unilateral commitment to increase the target to 30% ahead of any agreement at Copenhagen.
Japan
Will proposes to cut emissions to 25% below 1990 levels by 2020, if other countries show similar ambition.
Brazil
On November 13, 2009, the government of Brazil announced it would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 36%-39% from business as usual levels by 2020. Over half the reductions will be achieved through efforts already underway to reduce deforestation in the Amazon.
India
India would like to see developed nations commit to a 25% cut in greenhouse gas emissions before agreeing targets of its own
The Danes
Connie Hedegaard, the Danish environment minister who will be the official host of the Copenhagen talks, made her views clear at the start of the Barcelona conference. Describing climate change as “one of the key challenges of our century” she challenged the United States to set an emissions reduction target.
The Group of 77
The G-77 is a group of 77 developing countries which was established in 1964. Its members include China, Brazil, India and Thailand. The G-77 is organized in a way which allows the 77 countries to promote their collective economic interests and strengthen their negotiating capacity.
The G-77 would like to see the industrialized nations commit up to 1% of their collective GDP annually, a sum in excess of £300 billion annually, to assist developing countries adapt to meet the challenges of climate change.
